NFL Week 4 odds picks Khalil Mack Bears will end FitzMagic in Tampa five best bets

This is the week Ryan FitzMagic finally morphs back into Ryan FitzTragic. Because if there's one thing that can finally put an end to FitzMagic, it's an unstoppable monster in the form of . To this point, Harvard man, NFL journeyman, and quarterback has been nearly unstoppable filling in for , whose ended this week. Fitzpatrick didn't just lead the Buccaneers to a 2-1 record with wins over the and before dropping a tight contest to the -- those are three playoff teams, by the way. He also threw for 1,230 yards and 11 touchdowns along the way, becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to the throw for at least 400 yards in three straight games.Some day, somewhere, we'll be telling our grandkids and/or pets about this FitzMagical run. We'll also tell them about the day it ended. And the day is coming soon. On Sunday, the Buccaneers face the Bears in Chicago where Mack and the reborn Monsters of the Midway wait. That's when and where FitzMagic will expire. I know this is I'm beginning my weekly best bets column with a ' defense specific introduction, but bear with me here. Because what Mack is doing right now is worthy of recognition. He's transformed a solid defense into a great defense. Through three games -- and keep in mind he mi sed all of training camp and the preseason -- he's already registered four sacks, 11 solo tackles, three forced fumbles, one fumble recovery, one interception, and one touchdown. When you're as good as #52 the only person to outdo is... yourself. _()_/ 's recorded a sack and a forced fumble in all 3 games this season. He was also the last player to record a sack and forced fumble in 3 straight games (Weeks 12-14 in 2016). Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) : Khalil Mack. Speed to power. Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) As a result, . They're allowing the fifth-fewest yards (289 per game) and the eighth-fewest points (18.3 per game). They've generated the second-most takeaways with eight and they lead the league in sacks with 14. Mack doesn't have all 14 of those sacks, but his presence alone ( ) and quarterbacks running away from him have directly led to several other quarterback takedowns. For perspective, , as NFL Network's Andrew Siciliano noted.As the Bears sit at 2-1 (their first winning record since Week Julius Erving Jersey 3 of the 2014 season) and atop the NFC North (their first division lead since Week 16 of the 2013 season), Mack deserves to be in the MVP conversation. The Bears are only 2-1 because of their defense. And the Bears' defense is only good enough to win two games on their own because they have Mack, the best edge rusher in football who makes everyone around him better. The secondary isn't forced to cover nearly as long. , a very good defensive end, is suddenly the second priority for opposing offensive lines. is the third priority. According to ESPN's Bill Barnwell, On "Good Morning Football" this week, Kay Adams reminded us that it's not just Mack out there destroying opposing offenses. Mack's the centerpiece, but he's been this dominant in the past and that didn't turn the into a destructive force. This entire Bears defense is worthy of recognition, which is why Mack said recently that Sure, was amazing, but what would 'The Office' be without Jim & Dwight? says may run the defense now, but his co-workers on D need some respect. GMFB (@gmfb) And so, with the first of my five best bets, I'm taking the Bears to beat the Buccaneers by more than three points. They're going to end the FitzMagic ride. Fitzpatrick likes to chuck the ball around and give his receivers a chance to come down with wild pa ses downfield (see: his three picks vs. Pittsburgh). The Bears, with their five picks in three games, like to catch wild pa ses. More NFL For what it's worth, . But I'm operating under the belief that it'll be Fitzpatrick considering how well he played in the first two games and how he rebounded from a dismal first half on Monday night with an explosive second half. The Buccaneers get a bye week after Week 4, which seems like the perfect opportunity to put Winston back into the starting lineup. And if the Buccaneers do make the move to Winston before Sunday's game, they're still going to have i sues with this Bears defense. While Winston's been a substantially better quarterback than Fitzpatrick during their careers, he can also be maddeningly inconsistent and turnover prone like Fitzpatrick. I'm not sure it really matters who's at quarterback for the Buccaneers in this game. Let's get to my five best bets. Last week:3-2 This year: 11-4 Bears (-3) vs. Buccaneers The biggest concern I have about this game is the Bears' offense -- specifically, second-year quarterback . But I still believe in his upside and I believe in Matt Nagy's system. He's creating openings, but Trubisky isn't seeing them or hitting them with accuracy. Again Mitch is Hot and the answer is Cohen out of the backfield. Yes I definitely think hell get a lot better at recognizing these ! Olin kreutz (@olin_kreutz) At some point, it's all going to click. Against a defense that , 31st in yards allowed, and 29th in points allowed is a good time for that to happen. (-5) at When will ' wild run end? After Mahomes' blistering start -- 896 yards and 13 touchdowns in three wins -- that seems to be the question on everyone's mind. Except, I'm not sure if it'll ever end. That's not to say Mahomes is going to throw for 4,800 yards and 69 touchdowns. He's going to slow down at some point. But if you're waiting for Mahomes to suddenly turn into an ordinary quarterback, you're going to be waiting forever. This Chiefs offense is anything but ordinary. They're.It's part Mahomes. WHAT. , pure Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) It's part Andy Reid. All , no brakes. Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) It's part weapons. It helps when you have a tight end who can line up outside and do stuff like this. Dieter Kurtenbach (@dkurtenbach) The Broncos might slow them down more than the 49ers, Steelers, and did, but they're not going to completely shut them down. Through three weeks, the Broncos defense is ranked 14th in yards, 16th in points, and This isn't the 2015 Broncos defense anymore. And their quarterback problem has hardly been fixed by the arrival of , who's thrown two more interceptions than touchdowns so far this season.The Broncos won't be able to stop the Chiefs and they're not going to be able to keep up. (-3) at The Cardinals just aren't any good right now. They've scored 20 points all season long. With and , their future is bright, but Rosen's development is only just beginning. After getting thrown into just about the worst po sible situation Nate Sestina Jersey a week ago -- down late in the fourth quarter against that Bears defense -- Rosen will make his first-ever NFL start against the Seahawks. The Seahawks might not be any good either, but I don't think they're as bad as they've been made out to be. They've lost two tight road contests and hammered the at home. is playing out of his dang mind (extend him already), having notched three picks. Don't be surprised if he gets another against a rookie making his first start. The Seahawks might not be a good team, but they're good enough to take advantage of the Cardinals' all-around inadequacy and an inexperienced Rosen. Oh and hey, might make his return. Pete Carroll says Doug Baldwin is practicing today for the first time since suffering an MCL injury in the opener. Called it a big step in his recovery. Doesnt sound like K.J. Wright is as close to returning from his knee injury. Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) (-10) vs. The Bills' surprise beatdown of the after traveling to the wrong state on Saturday () has done nothing to change my mind about them. A suming the Bills show up to the right state on Sunday, they're probably not going to get the gift they got on Sunday, when fumbled twice deep inside his own territory. The Bills raced out to a 17-0 lead in the first quarter and two of their scoring drives netted six plays and 29 yards. Give the Bills credit for beating the Vikings. Nobody saw it coming. But that doesn't mean they'll do it again. isn't Kirk Cousins. He doesn't turn the ball over (1.6 career interception rate). He might be hobbled, but he's not going to give the Bills free points. Even though the Packers are down a couple defenders, I'm skeptical the Bills will be able to move the ball against the Packers consistently enough to keep pace with Rodgers. The Bills burned me last week, but I'm willing to go against them one more time. (+5) at The Bengals might be good and the Falcons are banged up more than any other team, having lost , , , , and to injury. Four of those five players won't play on Sunday (Freeman's status is up in the air). The Bengals, at 2-1, have been scoring at will -- nearly 30 points per game -- and their defensive line can cause problems for the Falcons. It's worth noting that A.J. Green, who hurt his hip last week, I don't really know who wins this game, but it feels like a game that'll be decided by a field goal.
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